Financial Insights

Heed the Data, Not What Fed Officials Say

Policy makers are being pushed in the direction of more or faster interest-rate increases....
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Five Fed Rate Hikes in 2018 Isn’t A Crazy Idea

Economic conditions are ripe -- even overripe -- for inflation to accelerate....
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Keep Calm and Stop Worrying About ‘Bondmaggedon’

A flattening or inversion of the yield curve is a weak predictor of recession....
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Employment Report Takes Backseat to New Fed Driver

The strong employment report garnered well-deserved attention on Friday but was overshadowed by President Trump’s nomination of Jerome Powell as the next Federal Reserve Chair....
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The Fed Will be Vindicated on Wage Inflation

The macroeconomic implications of a more efficient labor market are profound....
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Economic Growth Remains Quite Solid

The economy has managed to sustain a healthy pace of economic growth despite a retrenchment in drilling for oil and gas that weakened activity in the second half of 2015....
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Bond Traders Are Relying on Wishful Thinking

Investors dismiss Yellen’s analysis at their own peril....
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Keep Your Eye on the Fed, not the D.C. Circus

Should the Board of Governors choose to unwind their large portfolio of assets, complacent investors in "risk-free" government bonds might be in for a fall reminiscent of an acrobat's misstep on a high-wire....
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Fed’s Leadership Is Best Left to the Economists

Trump has a predilection for business leaders. That wouldn't be wise for the central bank....
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