Just Another Ride on the Roller Coaster
It was a breathtakingly volatile week in the equity market, even more remarkably so for the paucity of reasons for the wild fluctuations. A host of explanations were given, yet none were satisfying....
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Can Trump Fire Powell? Should Trump Fire Powell?
Rumors have emerged suggesting that the President has looked into the possibility of firing Jay Powell as Fed Chair, which raises many questions....
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Every Word Counts, Especially If Your Name Is Jay Powell
Investors will receive three key pieces of information from this week’s Fed meeting. These pieces of information will hopefully help investors to understand better the Fed’s thoughts on interest rates as we head into 2019....
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The Canary in the Coal Mine Is Doing Just Fine
Despite the recent equity market sell off, the bond market is reminding investors that the economy is actually doing quite well....
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The U.S. Economy Deserves a Lot More Credit
Interest rates are likely to work their way higher and the yield curve will continue to flatten, which shouldn’t be troubling....
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Solid Job Growth
The latest jobs data suggested that a major influx of job seekers is adding to the labor force, which is holding down wage inflation and providing some additional room for the economy to grow. Part of this may be wishful thinking, specifically regarding inflation....
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Don’t Be Afraid of a Flattening Yield Curve
Alarmist market watchers have been citing the flattening yield curve as a harbinger of economic recession. Not so fast....
Read More >Policy Evolution at the Fed
The Fed’s perception of economic risks continues to evolve, as inflation has moved up to its target more quickly, even as unemployment has declined more rapidly than expected....
Read More >Markets Are Underestimating the Fed
The recent acceleration in inflation poses significant risks to the current slow normalization approach....
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