The Calm Before The Storm?

July finished the month with a 9% gain. Indeed, following a volatile summer, investors and lawmakers have reason to feel a modicum of relief. Yet the U.S. economy has entered into what was commonly thought as a technical recession. While whispers of recession are certainly strange in a time of such strength in the labor market, I believe there are enough storm clouds on the horizon to warrant investor caution going forward.

The Sky is Falling! The Sky is Falling?

The S&P 500, even after rebounding 12% in the last six weeks, is down 13% for the year. Just as companies and consumers are adjusting to ongoing economic challenges, investors have spent the last several months reallocating exposure towards safety, and they have seemingly prepared for Chicken Little’s apocalypse. The recent rally suggests that markets already anticipate these events and are now positioning for beyond.

College Bound? Or Not! Don’t Forget Critical Documents

Whether or not the college students you know will be home, commuting, on campus or taking classes virtually, one thing that has not changed is the need for basic estate planning documents for all adults 18 years or older (Financial Power of Attorney, Health Power of Attorney/Proxy and HIPAA Release forms).

Determining Signals from the Noise

The father of American Psychology, William James, is quoted, saying “The art of being wise is knowing what to overlook.” This strikes a chord because it gets to the root of what matters: what to pay attention to and what to dismiss. The art of determining the signals from the noise.

Have We Hit Bottom, Yet?

The Fed’s objective of raising rates to slow growth without causing a recession will not be easy to accomplish.  Even so, it isn’t impossible. We think the economy is fairly unlikely to suffer a deep recession and that stock valuations have fallen to attractive levels.  In our judgment, stocks now present a very enticing level from a longer-term perspective.

China, Taiwan, and the World Economic Order

Among the foreseeable challenges facing the world economy and political order, few loom larger than that of China’s plans to become the world’s leading global power. There are reasons to think Xi Jinping may
become increasingly anxious to proceed with reunifying Taiwan.